Diös: Strong Q1 beat - ABG

NOI +5% vs ABGSCe and +4% vs cons.
Like-for-like rental income +3.0%
Consensus IFPM estimates should come up by ~4-5%

Net leasing (TTM) was SEK 58m (31m in Q4)
Rental income came in at SEK 539m (483m) compared to our forecast of SEK 534m and Infront consensus of SEK 533m. Net operating income was SEK 336m, +5% relative to our estimate of SEK 321m and +4% vs consensus at SEK 323m. Income from property management amounted to SEK 271m (231m) compared to our forecast of SEK 253m and cons. of SEK 257m. Net leasing in the quarter was SEK 22m (-5m), SEK 58m TTM (15m). Reported like-for-like rental growth amounted to 3.0% compared to 2.8% in Q1’20 and 2.3% in Q1’19. The occupancy rate of 89% in Q2-Q4’21 increased to 90%. On the negative side, the average interest rate was 1.2% versus 1.1% in Q4. The avg. interest maturity was 0.8 years (0.9 in Q4).

EPRA NRVPS +6% q-o-q (adj. for DPS) to SEK 103 (84)
Property value changes amounted to SEK 553m (418m) or +1.98%, we expected 0.70%. Higher market rents and improved net operating income mainly explained the value change. The valuation yield was up 3 bps q-o-q (-18 bps y-o-y) to 5.47%. EPRA NRV per share increased 6.3% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y (adj. for dividends) to SEK 103 (84), versus our forecast of SEK 101 (consensus SEK 100). Net LTV was 49.3% compared to 48.6% in Q4.

‘22e P/IFPM of ~11x and P/EPRA NRV of 0.80x
The share is trading at 2022e P/IFPM of ~11x and P/EPRA NRV of 0.80x. These metrics are some ~25% (P/IFPM) below and roughly in line (P/EPRA NRV) with the average valuation for peers such as CAST, EAST, NYF and WIHL (we have excluded NYF on P/IFPM since consensus includes joint ventures, which causes a deviation too large to make the figure useful).
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