CTT Systems: 33% org growth, 4% sales miss vs. ABG - ABG

Sales -4%, EBIT -27% vs. ABGSCe, 33% org sales (ABG 49%)
Q1 guidance of ~40% growth y-o-y, but negative mix effect
23-17x EV/EBIT '23e-'24e, >20% EBIT growth in 2023e-2025e


Q4 details

Sales came in at SEK 68m (-4% vs. ABGSCe 71m), +61% y-o-y of which 33% organically (ABGSCe 49%) as strong aftermarket sales continued (up ~110% y-o-y) while both OEM and private jet sales remained at a fairly low level. EBIT grew 160% y-o-y and reached SEK 21m (-27% vs. ABGSCe 28m), for a margin of 33% (ABGSCe 40%, 19% Q4'21), despite the fact that aftermarket revenues accounted for 80% of revenues (ABGSCe 73%). 2022 DPS was SEK 4.05 (ABGSCe 3.84), ~80% of net profit. For Q1'23, CTT guides for sales of SEK 68-73m, with the mid-point of ~71m implying 4% growth q-o-q and 43% growth y-o-y (ABGSCe 35% growth for FY'23e), due to higher OEM and private jet sales q-o-q offset by "significantly lower" aftermarket sales due to high inventory levels at distributors and airlines. Free cash flow was strong at ~80% of EBIT.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/ctt-systems/Equity-research/2023/2/ctt-systems---33-org-growth-4-sales-miss-vs.-abg/