Careium: Minor market improvements and light comps - ABG

Q4e: 15% organic sales growth y-o-y, 11% adj. EBITA margin
Expect a solid Q4, partly on light comps
Trading at 8.5x-7x '25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj.


Q4e: Solid growth and margin expansion

We expect Q4 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 232m and SEK 26m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 15% and a margin of 11%. We expect a slight recovery in UK product sales due to pent-up demand, but overall see continued headwinds on product sales. The Q4'23 comps are light, however, as the quarter was adversely affected by the announcement of infrastructure delays, which is why we expect strong growth this quarter. We expect opex to increase by 8% q-o-q, mainly driven by higher admin costs. On margins, we expect a slightly higher GM y-o-y, but somewhat lower q-o-q, on a different geographical and product mix (42.4% Q4'24e vs. 40.2% Q4'23 and 42.7% Q3'24). Consequently, our estimated adj. EBITA margin of 11% is 1.7pp higher q-o-q (9.4% Q3'24) and 0.9pp higher y-o-y (10.2% Q4'23).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/1/careium---minor-market-improvements-and-light-comps/