Careium: Market delays remain a headwind - ABG

Q2e: 6% organic sales growth y-o-y, 9% adj. EBITA margin
Expect a softer Q2, partly on further market delays
Trading at 9.5x-8x '24e-'25e EV/EBITA adj.


Q2e: Sales slightly impacted by infrastructure delays

We expect Q2 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 228m and SEK 21m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y growth of 7% (6% organic) and a margin of 9%. We expect sales to be negatively impacted by the two-year delay (from '25 to '27) of A2D in the UK and the (partial) 2G wind-down in Sweden, which was announced in May. We expect this to impact UK product sales and Nordic bundled sales, as the urgency for replacing units has diminished. We expect opex to increase by 4% q-o-q to support future growth, driven by increased R&D and admin costs. Note that our estimates imply a 2% y-o-y decline in opex. On margins, we expect a slightly lower GM vs. Q1 (41% Q2'24e vs. 43% Q1'24) on a somewhat different geographic mix. Consequently, the estimated adj. EBITA margin of 9% is 1pp lower q-o-q (10% Q1'24) but flat y-o-y (9% Q2'23).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2024/6/careium---market-delays-remain-a-headwind/