Careium: A Q2 to care about - ABG

Reinitiating coverage, fair value range SEK 14-38
Q2: accelerating org. growth, coupled with margin up 3pp seq.
Trading at 6x '24e EV/EBITA, FVR corresponds to 6-10x NTM


Q2 showed healthy trends with accelerating growth

Careium is continuing its turnaround after a tough '22, reaching 19% organic growth (up from 4-16% in the last 4 quarters) in Q2, while the adj. EBITA margin came in at a steady 9.1%, up 3pp sequentially and 10pp y-o-y. Costs seem to be under control, and FX tailwinds supported the GM, but we do not assess the dynamics in the quarter to be one-off in nature. As such, from the current run-rate, we expect a stabilising GM, coupled with healthy opex growth, to drive further double-digit organic growth in '23e-'24e. In total, we estimate an 11% org. sales CAGR '23e-'25e, with adj. EBITA margins expanding from 1% to 11% in '22-'25e, resulting in a CAGR of 145% (on easy comps, however. '24e-'25e CAGR of 25%).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2023/7/careium---a-q2-to-care-about/