CapMan: Strong pipeline in a challenging market - Nordea

CapMan's Management company business turnover (excluding carried interest) grew 16% y/y in Q3, supported by Dasos Capital, but missed our estimate slightly. CapMan booked essentially no carry in Q3 and negative fair value changes of EUR -0.8m. The adjusted EBIT miss, however, was caused by the reclassification of CaPS as a discontinued operation. AuM increased to EUR 6.0bn, from EUR 5.8m in Q2. The first close of NRE IV was postponed until 2025, which we view as a sign of the fundraising market recovering more slowly than expected, which leads us to trim our underlying estimates for Management company business. The majority of our revisions, however, are related to the CaPS reclassification. We calculate a SOTP-based fair value range of EUR 1.7-2.1 (1.8-2.2) per share. Marketing material commissioned by CapMan Oyj.

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