BTS Group: Time to gain some market share - ABG

Entering a tougher market but BTS is long-term
EBITA -3-6% in 2023e-'24e with Boda Group adding 5%
12.1x 2023e EV/EBITA, 9.5x in 2024e


Q1 weakness linked to US tech

Q1 missed our EBITA expectations by -12%, as the US tech sector once again caused headwinds. Group organic growth of 2% fell short of our expectation of 6%, although Europe (14%) and Other Markets (13%) surprised positively. The company was this time more clear that we are entering a tougher market ahead, with longer lead-times and somewhat more hesitant customers also outside of San Francisco. This is the time for BTS to become stronger as it has done several times before, implementing an efficiency program targeting SEK 60m with effects in H2'23 and gaining market share vs competitors in a slower market. Driven by the Q1 miss, the acquisition of The Boda Group (~5% add on EBITA) and somewhat slower growth assumptions for the rest of the year, we reduce EBITA estimates by 3-6% in 2023e-'24e. We estimate EBITA to grow 3% in 2023e, which is relatively conservative vs the company's reiterated guidance of an EBITA "better than 2022", as we think the risks have come up slightly.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2023/5/bts-group---time-to-gain-some-market-share/