BTS Group: Keeps delivering on promises - ABG
Europe recovered and FY guidance kept
EBITA cut 2-4%, eyes starting to shift to 2025e
Higher organic growth and potentially more M&A ahead
Q3 more or less as guided, and FY guidance kept
BTS delivered a Q3 report as guided for in Q2, with improvements in Europe, although there was a slight setback in momentum in North America and some weakness in Spain and Italy (part of the Other Markets segment). EBITA of SEK 60m was 9% below our estimate of SEK 66m, which is a relatively small deviation, also given that the FY guidance of “2024 EBITA better than 2023” was reiterated. We expect the North American market to remain slow in Q4, while Europe and Other Markets perform relatively well, resulting in FY EBITA growth of 5% vs 2023, in line with guidance. Q3 net income and EPS were positively affected by a SEK 166m earn-out reversal from the Netmind acquisition which did not meet the 3-year performance plan to be paid out. Adjusting for this, we estimate BTS to grow adj. EPS by 1% and we therefore also raise 2024e DPS by 4% to SEK 5.90 (5.70), which would be yet another year of raised DPS.
Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bts-group/Equity-research/2024/11/bts-group---keeps-delivering-on-promises/