Boule Diagnostics: Management efforts to improve gross margin - ABG

Q4'24 results due 11 February
'25e-'26e adj. EBIT revised by 0.5-0.7%
Share trading at '25e EV/EBIT of 6.3x


Q4'24 expectations

We expect Boule Diagnostics to deliver organic sales growth of -4% to SEK 141m in Q4'24e. Consumables performed well in Q3, and we expect growth of 3% in consumables sales to SEK 94m in Q4'24e. In Instruments, we forecast a 29% decline in the number of instruments sold, but at a higher ASP compared to Q4'23, resulting in an 28% decline in total instrument sales to SEK 33m in Q4. With lower than expected opex and a higher gross margin in Q3, we expect the recent management efforts to continue to pay off, with gross margin expanding to 47.1% in Q4'24, up 2.6pp y-o-y and 0.3pp q-o-q. This should further lead to an estimated EBIT of SEK 11m in Q4, with a margin of 7.5%. Margins should also be positively impacted by the switch to a licencing model in India starting in Q4'24e which also will bring a -30m effect annually on sales. From a cash flow perspective, we expect an OCF of SEK 35m in Q4; at the end of Q3, Boule had SEK 17.2m in cash and an additional SEK 30.5m in credit facilities.

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