Boule Diagnostics: Low sales but margin improvements in Q3e - ABG

Q3'24 results due 25 October
'24e-'26e adj. EBIT revised down 0.7%-1.3%
We forecast -1% organic growth and 7.7% adj. EBIT margin


Q3'24 expectations

We expect Boule Diagnostics to report organic sales growth of -1% in Q3'24 and adj. EBIT of SEK 10.5m for a margin of 7.7%, up from 5.7% in Q3'23. We forecast sales of SEK 136.3m, driven by -5% growth in instrument sales and -2% growth in consumables. We estimate a 4% increase in the number of instruments sold, but at a lower ASP compared with Q3'23. In total, we forecast instrument sales of SEK 47m and consumables sales of SEK 79m in Q3. We have assumed operating costs to be in line with Q3 last year but y-o-y gross margin improvements to drive higher earnings. On a reported basis we forecast EBIT of SEK -297.5m, including the two non-cash write-downs totalling SEK 308m that were announced on 8 October (SEK 265m related to its R&D project and SEK 43m related to its operations in Russia). The R&D write-down was related to a new 3-part system and not to its 5-part system which has been delayed several times. According to the latest updated timeline by management, the new 5-part system is not expected to contribute to sales until 2026.

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