BankNordik: Solid capital distribution expected - Nordea

With a ~70% payout yield up to 2024E, capital repatriation remains key for the BankNordik share. Moreover, the two recent interest rate hikes should be net positive for BankNordik, as we expect an anticipated step-up in investment income to outweigh the negative second order effect from rate hikes on lending growth. However, yesterday (17 October) BankNordik downgraded its 2022 net profit guidance to DKK 140-170m due to negative market value adjustments. Yet, the negative market value adjustments should be seen together with an expected higher yield on the fixed income portfolio, which prompts us to make positive EPS revisions of 7-9% for 2023E-24E. Finally, we raise our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 197-220 (177-199). The share is trading at a 2024E excess capital-adjusted P/E of ~3.6x, ~50% below its Danish peers. Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik.

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