B3 Consulting Group: Negative calendar effect starting in Q2 - ABG

- We lower 23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 6%
- Conditions for IT services companies worsening
- B3 trading at '23e EV/EBITA of 8.5x

What to look for in Q2'23e
For Q2'23, we expect sales of SEK 301m, implying y-o-y growth of 3.9%, along with an adj. EBITA of SEK 28m, corresponding to an adj. EBITA margin of 9.1%. Our new estimates mean that we have reduced Q2 sales and adj. EBITA by 3% and 24%, respectively. This change comes in the aftermath of a significant worsening of operating conditions for the IT services sector based on recent data. While the outlook that both the company and its peers provided with the Q1 reports was bleak, we did not expect a downturn as sharp as the recent economic data suggests. Finally, we are also aware that the company celebrated its 20-year anniversary in Q2'23, and we expect that this will reduce the reported EBITA margin by 100-150bp (~SEK 3-4.5m).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/b3-consulting-group/Equity-research/2023/7/b3-consulting-group---negative-calendar-effect-starting-in-q2/