Arctic Paper: Q3 slightly above, Q4 likely flat/slightly better - ABG

Paper EBITDA PLN 49m, above ABGSCe PLN 47m
Group EBITDA beat driven mainly by Paper
Outlook remains muted, Q4 likely flat/slightly better (seasonally)


Slight beat driven by Paper

Q3 group EBITDA came in at PLN 77m, which compares to ABGSCe of PLN 74m. Paper EBITDA came in at PLN 49m, slightly above ABGSCe PLN 47m (i.e. beat is explained by better from Paper). Key to Q3 was soft demand (largely driven by Germany and Poland), higher pulp costs, and maintenance. Paper EBIT was PLN 25m vs. ABGSCe PLN 27m. Group EBIT came in at PLN 46m, +12% vs. ABGSCe of PLN 41m (lower Other). EPS came in at PLN 0.44 vs our estimate of PLN 0.35.

We expected Q3 paper EBIT of PLN ~27m, flat vs. PLN 27m in Q2'24. The main effects q-o-q were likely: PLN +15m from higher volumes, and PLN -15m from higher pulp prices. UWF and CWF prices remained flat q-o-q. Pulp EBIT would likely be slightly better q-o-q (PLN ~2m), driven by higher pulp prices. Hence, we expected Q3 group EBIT of PLN ~41m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2024/11/arctic-paper---q3-slightly-above-q4-likely-flatslightly-better/