Alcadon: Strong trend in UK to continue in Q4e - ABG

Q4 report due on Tuesday, 21 February
Raised opex and financial cost estimates
We expect Germany at ~SEK 200m p.a. run-rate by Q4'23e


Q4e: strong performance in UK, gradual improvements in Germany

We expect Alcadon to report Q4 sales of SEK 394m, up 91% y-o-y (10% organic, 76% M&A, 4% FX). In Germany, we expect some ramp-up in Q4, but we believe the growing order book will show as sales mostly from H1'23. The recently acquired Networks Centre (NWC) in the UK looks to be continuing its strong trend, although we note this is coming with some margin dilution. We expect a sequential improvement in the gross margin to 24.0% (23.5% in Q3'22), as Alcadon is gradually moving cost inflation on to customers, which has been particularly tough on the company given its significant exposure to USD-denominated COGS. As such, while the gross margin should be up from Q3, we still expect it to be down y-o-y, translating into an adj. EBIT of SEK 22.8m, for a margin of 5.8% (5.6% in Q3'22, 8.0% in Q4'21).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/alcadon/Equity-research/2023/2/alcadon---strong-trend-in-uk-to-continue-in-q4e/