Alcadon: Nordics slow down while Europe is growing - ABG

Adj. EBITA SEK 21.4m (-8% vs. ABGSCe 23.3m)Q2 numbers imply adj. EBITA downgrades of ~3%11x '23e EV/EBITA on pre-Q2 estimates

Q2 outcome
Sales were SEK 371m (-1% vs. ABGSCe 376m), up 72% y-o-y, of which -4% organic (ABGSCe -3%). The Nordic markets are seeing a clear slowdown, while Germany and Benelux outperformed our expectations. Adj. EBITA was SEK 21.4m (-8% vs. ABGSCe 23.3m), for a margin of 5.8% (ABGSCe 6.2%), which included NRIs SEK -10m (ABGSCe 0) tied to unrealised exchange rate losses on earn-out revaluations. The gross margin was also down 1.8pp y-o-y, likely on FX headwinds as Alcadon has significant COGS in EUR and USD. Finally, NWC build-up led to fairly soft FCF at ~25% of adj. EBITA.

Estimate changes
The Q2 numbers in isolation would imply negative adj. EBITA revisions of ~3% (~8% on reported EBITA). On outlook, the company expects a "cautious" market in near future, with improvements towards year-end, and a strong 2024.

Valuation
On our pre-Q2 estimates, the share is trading at 11x '23e EV/EBITA, offering a '23e-'25e adj. EBITA CAGR of 19%.Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates

Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/alcadon/Equity-research/2023/8/alcadon---nordics-slow-down-while-europe-is-growing/