GreenMobility - 2021 to be the company’s most exciting year
COVID-19 has likely delayed new revenue for ‘21e Our DCF values GM at 2-6x EV/Sales’23e (peers: ~6. 5x) Roll-out execution and fleet efficiency remain key 13 more cities achievable for ‘21e (despite prev. guidance) Following conversations with management, we lower the no. of cars to be rolled out in 2021e by 500 (~two cities).
As such, we forecast 13 cities in total despite the company’s previous guidance of 15. Given the more difficult roll-out conditions for new cities due to COVID-19, we now believe GreenMobility will reach 13, 19 and 24 cities in total from 2021-23e (prev. 15, 19 and 24), thus rolling out 2,500, 4,700 and 6,000 cars (prev.
3,000 in ‘21) vs. its ‘25 goal of 10,000. Therefore, despite our 2020-23 estimate changes, we reiterate our ‘24e EBITDA and FCF of DKK ~65m and DKK -50m.
After speaking with management, we have learned that GM breaks even at ~EUR 1k/per car/month. We now assume higher sales of DKK ~290m (DKK ~200m) in ‘24e with sales/fleet of DKK 36,000/year in ‘23 (prev. DKK 20,000) overall profit in Denmark and break-even in Sweden and Norway.
Guidance for ‘21 highly dependent on new city rollout We believe GreenMobility will guide for ‘21e revenue of DKK 65-75m (DKK ~35m ‘20e), EBT of DKK -60 to -80m (DKK ~-45m ‘20e) and users of ~210-260k (115k ‘20e). A lot depends on how fast the company can ramp up its existing cities alongside the announcement of new cities. We believe that the company will disclose a limited city breakdown for ‘21e; we estimate sales from established cities, new cities and pipeline cities of DKK 60m, DKK 10m and DKK 5m, respectively.
GM trades on LT sales, which we increase significantly We reiterate a WACC of 9. 6-10. 4%, but alter our LT sales growth estimate to 26-30% (13-17%), and our LT EBITDA margin to 18-22% (35-39%).
We think GreenMobility should trade at 2-6x (2-3. 5x) EV/Sales ’23e, where peers trade at ~6. 5x.
EV companies trade at 22x, rental car companies at 2. 4x and car producers at 0. 3x (incl.
