Fiskars Group - Starting the year on a strong note

Upgrading FY guidance before end-of-Q1 Q1 picking up where Q4 left off FY’21 estimates likely up mid-single-digits Raising FY guidance before close of Q1 After market close on Wednesday, Fiskars Group raised its full-year 2021 guidance. The adj. EBITA range is raised from previous EUR 110m-137m to EUR 120m-137m. The company states that momentum remains positive in Q1, with all segments showing strong demand and growing.

However, the CEO stresses that visibility is low for the rest of the year and that normal seasonality patterns could differ from normal patterns. We understand that the company still is operating under a cost base that is still not fully normalised after the temporary cost savings, with a continued elevated demand as seen during Q2-Q4’20. Strong statement with raw mats and freight costs increasing The increased guidance is a strong sign during uncertain times.

We have been somewhat cautious on the back of 1) increased raw material prices, 2) significantly increased freights costs and 3) potential higher-than-normal inventory levels in snow-related products following the winter season 19/20. The increased guidance proves our worries in the short-term overdone. Over time, we argue that the company’s pricing power could offset external headwinds (e.

g. raw material price inflation or higher freight rates). New low-end guidance 5% above our FY estimates Our current estimates suggests a FY’21e adj.

EBITA of EUR 114m, c. 5% below the low-end of the new guidance. We estimate consensus to be at c.

EUR 117-118m, ~2-3% below low-end guidance. The new mid-point of the FY guidance (EUR 128m) suggest c. 13% and 9-10% upside to ABGSC and consensus adj.

EBITA, respectively. We believe consensus estimates could come up by mid-single-digits for FY’21e on the back of the news, but acknowledge that uncertainty is high in regards to normalised demand, and reckon estimates hikes will be lower for ‘22e-‘23e.